New England Patriots at Detroit Lions — Week 10 Odds, Injuries & Prediction

New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions: live odds, injury report, team rankings comparison, and win probability for this matchup.

Sun, Nov 15 · 9:30 AM ET · FOX

Odds (DraftKings): DET -1.5 · ML NE +105 / DET -125 · O/U 48.5

Model prediction

Predicted winner: New England Patriots - NE 75% / DET 25%

Blitz Edge: why the model likes New England Patriots

The model gives New England Patriots a 75% chance to win this one. The biggest factors: NE's total offense (#16) has a 16-spot edge over DET's total defense (#32), and NE's pass offense (#17) has a 15-spot edge over DET's pass defense (#32).

DET is also dealing with Brian Branch (S) listed as out, which tips things further NE's way. Note: the sportsbook favorite (DET) disagrees with this pick.

Team stats comparison (rank out of 32)

	NE offense	DET offense	Edge
Total yards	#16	#6	home edge (10)
Rush yards	#10	#20	away edge (10)
Pass yards	#17	#3	home edge (14)

	NE defense	DET defense	Edge
Total yards allowed	#6	#32	away edge (26)
Rush yards allowed	#14	#21	away edge (7)
Pass yards allowed	#5	#32	away edge (27)

Injury report

Ben Brown (NE · C) - active - Knee
Carlton Davis III (NE · CB) - active - Neck (cleared)
Christian Barmore (NE · DT) - out - Shoulder
A.J. Brown (NE · WR) - out - High ankle sprain (right) - on injured reserve
Mike Onwenu (NE · RG) - out - Broken right ankle
Brian Branch (DET · S) - out - Torn Achilles - on reserve/PUP
Kerby Joseph (DET · S) - out - Knee injury (lingering from 2025) - on reserve/PUP
Payton Turner (DET · DE) - out - Back
Isiah Pacheco (DET · RB) - out - Back - surgery (loose body pressing on a nerve), on injured reserve
Cade Mays (DET · C) - out - Fractured wrist - on injured reserve, designated to return
Avonte Maddox (DET · CB) - out - Foot - season-ending surgery

New England Patriots full schedule · Detroit Lions full schedule · See this week's full NFL odds and predictions on Blitz Odds