NFL Pick'em Playbook - Week 5 Confidence, Survivor & Spread Picks (2026)

A finished pick sheet for your pool, every week, from the Blitz Odds model: every Week 5 game ranked into a confidence ladder, the safest survivor spends, and the spread plays where the model's line is furthest from the market's. Win probabilities account for team rankings, injuries, home field and the betting line.

Week 5 confidence ladder

15 games - assign 15 points to the top pick down to 1 at the bottom. Full Week 5 breakdown with spreads and kickoff times »

  1. 15 pts - Jacksonville Jaguars (76%) - Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars
  2. 14 pts - Seattle Seahawks (73%) - San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
  3. 13 pts - New England Patriots (72%) - Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
  4. 12 pts - Chicago Bears (67%) - Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
  5. 11 pts - Los Angeles Rams (62%) - Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
  6. 10 pts - Atlanta Falcons (61%) - Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
  7. 9 pts - Tennessee Titans (59%) - Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
  8. 8 pts - Pittsburgh Steelers (58%) - Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
  9. 7 pts - Arizona Cardinals (56%) - Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
  10. 6 pts - Miami Dolphins (55%) - Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
  11. 5 pts - Washington Commanders (54%) - New York Giants at Washington Commanders
  12. 4 pts - Dallas Cowboys (53%) - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
  13. 3 pts - Cleveland Browns (53%) - Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
  14. 2 pts - Minnesota Vikings (52%) - Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
  15. 1 pts - Denver Broncos (52%) - Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Week 5 survivor picks

The safest wins on the slate. In a league, Blitz Odds narrows this to the teams you haven't used yet and flags when a team is worth holding for a better week.

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars - 76% to win (safest play on the board) - vs Philadelphia Eagles
  2. Seattle Seahawks - 73% to win - vs San Francisco 49ers
  3. New England Patriots - 72% to win - vs Las Vegas Raiders

Week 5 against the spread

  1. Tennessee Titans to cover as the underdog - The model's own line favors Tennessee Titans while the market has them getting points. That's a lean, not an edge: against closing spreads the model's side covers about half the time, so weigh it as one opinion on the number.

The rest of this week's spread sheet, in order:

  1. Arizona Cardinals to cover as the underdog - The model's own line favors Arizona Cardinals while the market has them getting points. That's a lean, not an edge: against closing spreads the model's side covers about half the time, so weigh it as one opinion on the number.
  2. Miami Dolphins to cover as the underdog - The model's own line favors Miami Dolphins while the market has them getting points. That's a lean, not an edge: against closing spreads the model's side covers about half the time, so weigh it as one opinion on the number.
  3. Cleveland Browns to cover as the underdog - The model's own line favors Cleveland Browns while the market has them getting points. That's a lean, not an edge: against closing spreads the model's side covers about half the time, so weigh it as one opinion on the number.
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars -7 - The model gives Jacksonville Jaguars a 76% win probability and its own line lands on this side of the number. A lean, not an edge: the model's spread picks cover about half the time against the closing line.

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