New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars — Week 3 Odds, Injuries & Prediction

New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars: live odds, injury report, team rankings comparison, and win probability for this matchup.

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Final: New England Patriots 6 - 35 Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville Jaguars won. Model prediction was correct.

Odds (DraftKings): JAX -3 · ML NE +130 / JAX -155 · O/U 45.5

Model prediction

Predicted winner: Jacksonville Jaguars - NE 42% / JAX 58%

Blitz Edge: why the model likes Jacksonville Jaguars

The model gives Jacksonville Jaguars a 58% chance to win this one. The biggest factor: JAX's pass defense (#22) has a 4-spot edge over NE's pass offense (#26).

Home field adds a small extra boost on top of that. NE is also dealing with A.J. Brown (WR) listed as out, which tips things further JAX's way.

Team stats comparison (rank out of 32)

	NE offense	JAX offense	Edge
Total yards	#18	#15	home edge (3)
Rush yards	#10	#16	away edge (6)
Pass yards	#26	#18	home edge (8)

	NE defense	JAX defense	Edge
Total yards allowed	#4	#18	away edge (14)
Rush yards allowed	#11	#13	away edge (2)
Pass yards allowed	#5	#22	away edge (17)

Injury report

Ben Brown (NE · C) - active - Knee
Carlton Davis III (NE · CB) - active - Neck (cleared)
Bhayshul Tuten (JAX · RB) - active - Illness
Christian Barmore (NE · DT) - out - Shoulder
A.J. Brown (NE · WR) - out - High ankle sprain (right) - on injured reserve
Mike Onwenu (NE · RG) - out - Broken right ankle
Zach Durfee (JAX · DE) - out - Upper Body

New England Patriots full schedule · Jacksonville Jaguars full schedule · See this week's full NFL odds and predictions on Blitz Odds