NFL Week 1 Picks & Predictions - 2026

Blitz Odds model picks for all 16 Week 1 games, ranked into a full confidence pool ladder. Win probabilities are adjusted for team rankings, injuries, and home field. Free, no account needed.

Week 1 confidence pool ladder

Assign 16 points to the top row down to 1 point at the bottom - the model's most confident pick first.

Points	Pick	Matchup	Win probability	Spread	Kickoff
16	Los Angeles Rams	San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams	85%	LAR -3.5	Thu, Sep 10 · 8:35 PM ET
15	Jacksonville Jaguars	Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars	71%	JAX -8.5	Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
14	Indianapolis Colts	Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts	69%	BAL -3.5	Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
13	Dallas Cowboys	Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants	68%	DAL -3	Sun, Sep 13 · 8:20 PM ET
12	Minnesota Vikings	Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings	66%	MIN -1.5	Sun, Sep 13 · 4:25 PM ET
11	Buffalo Bills	Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans	62%	BUF -1.5	Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
10	Tennessee Titans	New York Jets at Tennessee Titans	62%	TEN -1.5	Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
9	Chicago Bears	Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers	61%	CHI -3	Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
8	Detroit Lions	New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions	61%	DET -7	Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
7	Atlanta Falcons	Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers	59%	PIT -6.5	Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
6	Los Angeles Chargers	Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers	59%	LAC -9.5	Sun, Sep 13 · 4:25 PM ET
5	Philadelphia Eagles	Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles	57%	PHI -6	Sun, Sep 13 · 4:25 PM ET
4	New England Patriots	New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks	54%	SEA -3	Wed, Sep 9 · 8:20 PM ET
3	Miami Dolphins	Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders	54%	LV -3	Sun, Sep 13 · 4:25 PM ET
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals	51%	CIN -3.5	Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET
1	Denver Broncos	Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs	50%	KC -2.5	Mon, Sep 14 · 8:15 PM ET

Results

The model went 6-10 on Week 1 games played so far.

• San Francisco 49ers 27 - 7 Los Angeles Rams - picked Los Angeles Rams (incorrect)
• Cleveland Browns 10 - 34 Jacksonville Jaguars - picked Jacksonville Jaguars (correct)
• Baltimore Ravens 41 - 23 Indianapolis Colts - picked Indianapolis Colts (incorrect)
• Dallas Cowboys 20 - 28 New York Giants - picked Dallas Cowboys (incorrect)
• Green Bay Packers 22 - 39 Minnesota Vikings - picked Minnesota Vikings (correct)
• Buffalo Bills 36 - 31 Houston Texans - picked Buffalo Bills (correct)
• New York Jets 23 - 10 Tennessee Titans - picked Tennessee Titans (incorrect)
• Chicago Bears 59 - 37 Carolina Panthers - picked Chicago Bears (correct)
• New Orleans Saints 30 - 31 Detroit Lions - picked Detroit Lions (correct)
• Atlanta Falcons 13 - 20 Pittsburgh Steelers - picked Atlanta Falcons (incorrect)
• Arizona Cardinals 26 - 14 Los Angeles Chargers - picked Los Angeles Chargers (incorrect)
• Washington Commanders 22 - 24 Philadelphia Eagles - picked Philadelphia Eagles (correct)
• New England Patriots 10 - 13 Seattle Seahawks - picked New England Patriots (incorrect)
• Miami Dolphins 13 - 27 Las Vegas Raiders - picked Miami Dolphins (incorrect)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 - 33 Cincinnati Bengals - picked Tampa Bay Buccaneers (incorrect)
• Denver Broncos 10 - 31 Kansas City Chiefs - picked Denver Broncos (incorrect)

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