NFL Week 4 Picks & Predictions - 2026

Blitz Odds model picks for all 16 Week 4 games, ranked into a full confidence pool ladder. Win probabilities are adjusted for team rankings, injuries, and home field. Free, no account needed.

Week 4 confidence pool ladder

Assign 16 points to the top row down to 1 point at the bottom - the model's most confident pick first.

Points	Pick	Matchup	Win probability	Spread	Kickoff
16	Seattle Seahawks	Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks	78%	SEA -7	Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET
15	Los Angeles Rams	Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles	77%	LAR -3.5	Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	77%	GB -3	Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
13	Kansas City Chiefs	Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders	72%	KC -4.5	Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET
12	San Francisco 49ers	Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers	64%	SF -3	Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET
11	Washington Commanders	Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders	61%	IND -4.5	Sun, Oct 4 · 9:30 AM ET
10	Dallas Cowboys	Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans	58%	HOU -3	Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
9	Pittsburgh Steelers	Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns	56%	PIT -2.5	Thu, Oct 1 · 8:15 PM ET
8	Buffalo Bills	New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills	56%	BUF -7	Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
7	Jacksonville Jaguars	Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals	56%	CIN -2.5	Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
6	Miami Dolphins	Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings	56%	MIN -10	Sun, Oct 4 · 4:05 PM ET
5	Carolina Panthers	Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers	56%	DET -4.5	Sun, Oct 4 · 8:20 PM ET
4	Arizona Cardinals	Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants	55%	ARI -2.5	Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
3	Atlanta Falcons	Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints	53%	NO -1.5	Mon, Oct 5 · 8:15 PM ET
2	New York Jets	New York Jets at Chicago Bears	52%	CHI -3.5	Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET
1	Baltimore Ravens	Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens	52%	BAL -11.5	Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET

Results

The model went 9-7 on Week 4 games played so far.

• Los Angeles Chargers 23 - 30 Seattle Seahawks - picked Seattle Seahawks (correct)
• Los Angeles Rams 24 - 20 Philadelphia Eagles - picked Los Angeles Rams (correct)
• Green Bay Packers 17 - 14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - picked Tampa Bay Buccaneers (incorrect)
• Kansas City Chiefs 30 - 27 Las Vegas Raiders - picked Kansas City Chiefs (correct)
• Denver Broncos 14 - 24 San Francisco 49ers - picked San Francisco 49ers (correct)
• Indianapolis Colts 30 - 13 Washington Commanders - picked Washington Commanders (incorrect)
• Dallas Cowboys 34 - 30 Houston Texans - picked Dallas Cowboys (correct)
• Pittsburgh Steelers 24 - 27 Cleveland Browns - picked Pittsburgh Steelers (incorrect)
• New England Patriots 29 - 26 Buffalo Bills - picked Buffalo Bills (incorrect)
• Jacksonville Jaguars 22 - 17 Cincinnati Bengals - picked Jacksonville Jaguars (correct)
• Miami Dolphins 10 - 15 Minnesota Vikings - picked Miami Dolphins (incorrect)
• Detroit Lions 26 - 32 Carolina Panthers - picked Carolina Panthers (correct)
• Arizona Cardinals 24 - 36 New York Giants - picked Arizona Cardinals (incorrect)
• Atlanta Falcons 45 - 24 New Orleans Saints - picked Atlanta Falcons (correct)
• New York Jets 12 - 23 Chicago Bears - picked New York Jets (incorrect)
• Tennessee Titans 18 - 24 Baltimore Ravens - picked Baltimore Ravens (correct)

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